anghraine: choppy water on a misty day (sea)
Anghraine ([personal profile] anghraine) wrote2024-03-05 03:00 pm
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Tumblr crosspost (5 November 2020)

Trump currently leads Biden by ~100,000 in Pennsylvania. There are about 500,000 left to count, so it’s all going to depend on those.

Biden would need around 63% or more of the remaining votes in Georgia to win; the votes left do seem to lean blue, though we’ll have to see if they lean blue enough.

Biden is slightly ahead in Arizona, but the remaining ballots are likely to be reddish (calling it early for him was a really weird choice by Fox and AP).

NC is pretty safe for Trump IMO (though it’ll be very narrow percentage-wise).

NV is pretty safe for Biden at this point; he’s ahead and apart from a few thousand outlying votes, the remaining votes seem to be mostly in the Las Vegas area.

theozilla responded:

I thought the ones left in Arizona were supposed to be slightly blueish to an even split?

I replied:

Apparently the Arizona GOP has a really well-established mail system, so the mailed ballots there are much less blue than is usual in other states. The later ballots skew more reddish as far as I’ve read. Could be wrong, though!

theozilla responded:

Hmmm here’s hoping. Especially if PA and/or GA don’t come through for Biden.

lantur said:

Thank you for the breakdown! I am salty over AZ getting called early, incorrectly :’(

I replied:

no problem! And same. It’d basically be over if we could be sure of AZ. :(