crosspost: Gondor's population [Dec 2014]

[anghraine]

I could be working on my paper, but alternately I could try and figure out a rough estimate of the populations of Gondor!

Okay, the army raised from the outlands to defend Minas Tirith:

• 200 from Lossarnach
• 300 from Ringló Vale
• 500 bowmen from Morthond
• a ‘long line’ of ill-equipped men from the Anfalas
• 'a few grim hillsmen’ from Lamedon
• 100-odd spared from the ships of the Ethir
• 300 from Pinnath Gelin
• 700 men at arms from Dol Amroth and a company (100-200?) of knights

Altogether, it’s stated to be just under 3000, most remaining home to defend their own lands. After the defeat of the Corsairs removes most of that threat, Aragorn leads a large host out of the south to the Pelennor Fields. Several days later, 4000 arrive from Pelargir, and “many” others. Ultimately, the Gondorian contingent of the army that rides to the Morannon consists of 2000 southern Gondorians under Aragorn, 3500 Gondorians under Imrahil, and 500 horsemen, and they’re able to leave behind more defenders in Minas Tirith than it had for the battle itself; ergo, over 3000. Most of the remaining Rohirrim follow Elfhelm to take command of the North Road, so that 3000+ would be overwhelmingly Gondorian (…and we already know of over 4000 that are, soooo). The various provinces of Gondor would also not be left entirely unguarded.

If, as is repeatedly suggested, the army of ~3000 that arrives for the battle is a tenth of the outlands’ strength, Gondor can raise an army of ~30,000 from outside Minas Tirith. While Minas Tirith itself undoubtedly has a punishing mobilization rate (one author suggests 10%, comparable with fifteenth century Constantinople–to which Tolkien himself compared MT), the agrarian provinces likely have a much lower one–going with the same author, perhaps something like Norman England’s 1%, which would produce (roughly estimated) populations of:

• 200,000 in Lossarnach
• 300,000 in Ringló Vale
• 500,000 in Morthond
• ~700,000 between Lamedon and the Anfalas (mostly Lamedon)
• 100,000 in the Ethir
• 300,000 in Pinnath Gelin
• ~850,000 in Belfalas
• similar number in Lebennin (400,000 at the absolute least, going by the force Pelargir sends)

This excludes the populations of Minas Tirith and any regions which did not send men, putting the population of Gondor somewhere in the vicinity of four million people. If this seems massive, bear in mind that Gondor covers about 700,000 square miles (or 1,800,000 square kilometers); subtracing the roughly 50,000 square miles of Calenardhon, 650,000 remain to produce a population density of about six people per square mile, less than Canada’s. It is frankly likely to be higher than that, and this is a time when the country is suffering under the strain of generations of war and a diminishing population.

To give an idea of just how decimated the Northern Dúnedain have been by this time, when Halbarad quickly gathers what men he can, he leads a hundredth of the tenth of the Gondorian army that arrived in Minas Tirith. He says the force would have been larger if he had more time, but even if it were fifty times larger, it would only come out to 1500 men. Considering the conditions in Eriador, they’re likely to have a higher mobilization rate than the outlying provinces of Gondor; if it’s at, say, 5%, that would produce a population of 30,000–and those are extremely generous estimates. Likely the population is much smaller (it could easily be half that or less), living within the 113,000 square miles of what was once Arthedain.